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RaboResearch: Global poultry industry faces avian influenza challenges, geopolitical and trade tensions

Tag：avian influenza trade 2025-01-14 11:44

The global poultry industry is set for growth in 2025

Rising geopolitical tensions, potential changes in global trade policies and avian influenza will be a risk to the worldwide animal protein industry in 2025, flags RaboResearch. But the international poultry industry is poised for strong growth despite these difficulties.

According to the report, affordability, sustainability trends and strong demand in emerging markets such as markets in Southeast Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa will drive robust growth in the poultry industry in 2025.

It is expected to grow by 2.5-3% in 2025, continuing its strong momentum from 2024 and returning to long-term global average market growth. Poultry’s affordability is significant as pressed consumers seek value for money in protein purchases. Meanwhile, it competes well against other proteins.

“Chicken will remain well-positioned in times of expensive competing proteins and lower costs,” says Nan-Dirk Mulder, senior analyst, Animal Protein at RaboResearch.

Additionally, increasing customer commitments to sustainability are driving a shift toward poultry in developed economies due to poultry’s relatively lower carbon dioxide footprint compared to other animal proteins.

Emerging markets in Southeast Asia, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa are expected to lead this growth. However, developed markets, particularly Europe, will also see ongoing expansion, with Europe outpacing global market growth.

“However, the success of the market will hinge on balanced supply growth,” notes Mulder.

Avian influenza remains a concern

However, there are risks this year regarding avian influenza, which has been impacting global supplies for several years. According to RaboResearch, it remains “a significant issue and could disrupt local markets and global trade.” A new wave of cases is impacting central Europe and Northeast Asia.

Countries have been increasing vaccination among poultry populations and boosting biosecurity measures to contain the spread of the disease.

Volatile trade

Trade maintains a strong momentum despite rising volatility.

Despite being predicted to remain strong, the global poultry trade will be influenced by rising geopolitical tensions and the subsequent trade tensions that can result from them.

Speculation is mounting around the potential for US President-elect Donald Trump, who is due to be inaugurated later this month, and his track record of placing tariffs on foreign goods, including F&B products. Any changing trade relationships will likely create volatility in trade flows and prices.

“Geopolitical tensions and trade issues will continue to challenge the industry. Particularly issues related to policy changes by the new US government, rising tensions between Europe and China, ongoing rerouting of shipments via the southern route due to turmoil in the Middle East, and trade restrictions due to disease challenges,” adds Mulder.

Success in 2024 drives investment for the future

On the upside, the poultry industry’s strong financial performance in 2024 encouraged new investments. The most significant focus now is on expansion in the Middle East, South Asia, and Southeast Asia, while European and North American investments are recovering.

Brazil stands out as a strong emerging market driven by increasing exports. All of this is leading to local and international investments, but the supply of breeding stock is tight, which will negatively impact investments in some emerging markets, RaboResearch notes.

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